• Existing home sales were down almost 30% last month on a year-over-year basis.

 

 

 

  • Here is the number of consecutive monthly declines.

 

 

  • Inventories are running at last year’s levels, but with slower sales, the months-of-supply indicator keeps climbing
  • The median price trend signals further weakness in home price appreciation
  • The six-month rolling changes in the leading index are signaling a recession.

 

 

  • The Treasury curve inversion takes us back to 1981.

 

 

  • Goldman now sees rate hikes in February, March, and May, and no rate cuts in 2023.

 

 

  • What caused the COVID-era inflation spike? Hint: it wasn’t the Fed’s QE.

 

 

  • The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index remains in contraction territory.

 

 

  • Capacity utilization is deteriorating.

 

 

  • Hiring has stopped.

 

 

  • The yield curve inversion continues to hit multi-decade extremes.

 

 

  • The terminal rate is back above 5%. Here is the market pricing for the maximum fed funds rate in the current cycle.

 

 

Market Data

 

  • Genesis Trading, a major crypto broker-dealer, warned that it may file for bankruptcy.

 

Source: Decrypt   Read full article

 

  • The company’s lending has fallen significantly this year.

 

 

  • US stocks continue to trade at a premium to other advanced economies.

 

 

  • Fund managers increasingly view the US dollar as overvalued

 

 

  • CEO sentiment points to deeper reductions in earnings.

 

 

  • Metals & Mining companies look cheap.

 

 

  • Long/short hedge funds’ equity exposure remains at multi-year lows.

 

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

  • Short interest in S&P 500 stocks is still very low.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

Quote of the Week

 

 

Picture of the Week

 

 

 

All content is the opinion of Brian J. Decker