July’s economic data told a split story. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted, driven by a steep drop in government employment, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% on a shrinking labor force. The stock market data pointed the other direction, as the share of US companies beating earnings estimates reached a record high and S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 moved sharply higher. The July inflation report came in roughly in line with expectations, with gasoline prices falling for a second month and food inflation easing. Below, the full data on the economy, the stock market, and the Fed.

US Economy

 

Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted in July, as a steep drop in government employment offset modest gains in private jobs. In the private sector, job growth was strongest in health care and construction, and weakest in leisure and hospitality and financial activities. Excluding leisure, hospitality, and health care, private payrolls posted modest gains. The unemployment rate dipped by 10 bps to 4.1%, below consensus, reflecting an 87,000 decline in household employment but a much larger 264,000 decline in the size of the labor force.

How reliant are US adults on their parents for money?

 

Source: Bloomberg via @randgroup   Read full article

 

Social platform hype is often fleeting.

 

Source: Sherwood   Read full article

 

US Stock Market

 

The breadth of earnings beats reached a record high in the US and Japan, and remained well above average in Europe and EM. Global earnings growth was broad-based across sectors. The S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have soared.

 

Source: Truist Wealth via @_JoshSchafer   Read full article

 

Analyst forecasts for future earnings suggest the proportion of S&P 500 companies seeing solid earnings growth will increase.

The earnings revision ratio for chip companies has been strong.

In AI, profit margins are higher the further you get from the end user.

How much do iPhones cost around the world?

 

 

Momentum stocks are now cheaper than the market based on forward P/E.

 

Source: J.P. Morgan Research

 

The Fed

 

The July inflation report was benign and roughly in line with expectations. The share of the CPI basket running at over 2.5% annualized inflation continues to ease. Gasoline prices fell for a second month, although this relief might see a reversal in the August report. Food inflation eased. Ground beef prices fell slightly but stayed above $7 per pound for the fourth consecutive month. Hotels and motels (slumped, reflecting continued reversal of the boost from the World Cup):

 

 

Great Quotes

 

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” – Herbert Stein

 

Picture of the Week

 

Waterfall in Hawaii

 

 

 

All content is the opinion of Brian Decker