You may have seen older versions of this chart. This one is freshly updated through last month. It shows some top CPI inflation categories that have grown more or less expensive since 2000. The “more expensive” items are all about healthcare, college education and childcare. Housing and food aren’t far behind. In contrast, the things that became more affordable are mostly technology items, along with frequently imported goods like toys and clothing.
Since 2000, costs for essential services—healthcare, education, housing—have soared, while technology and consumer goods have become markedly more affordable.
Another way to look at this: goods have been getting cheaper while services are getting more expensive. Not every good or every service, of course, but that’s the general trend.
This chart draws on the same data as the previous one but zooms in on the last 12 months. Here we see some important differences, but also a similarity. The inflation growth is still mostly in services, while the below-average inflation is found mostly in goods. There are some interesting exceptions, though.
Over the past year, energy and housing have driven inflation higher, even as transportation and electronics prices fell.
“Household energy” (i.e., electricity) bills zoomed more than 7% higher since a year ago. Meanwhile, gasoline prices dropped more than 8%. That may seem odd but examine your electric bill and you’ll see fuel costs are only part of the expense. Transmission and distribution are getting more expensive as utilities expand the grid to accommodate new AI demand. Gasoline doesn’t face this issue as its demand is growing more slowly.
That healthcare inflation would look even worse if CPI accurately measured health insurance premiums. It says health insurance costs rose 3.4% in the last year. The chart below shows the proposed 2026 premium increases filed by the largest ACA insurance plan in each state. Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Illinois is asking to raise its rates 27%. BCBS Texas wants 21%. In New York, Centene is asking for 8%.
Requested rate hikes vary widely—some plans seek increases above 20%, while others propose single-digit adjustments.
That’s bad enough but there’s more. The OBBB Act allowed COVID-era extra premium subsidies to expire, which means many families will get less help paying these premiums. Analysts say out-of-pocket premium costs could double or more for millions of Americans. Nor is this just their problem. Those who pay the higher rates will have less cash available for other kinds of consumer spending. Others who can’t afford coverage will, in some cases, get sick or injured and be unable to work. Like a virus, it spreads to everyone eventually.
Great Quotes
“I think A.I. is underhyped, not overhyped. It is actually much bigger than we can imagine.”
— Elijah Batt, Hair Stylist of 25 Years
Picture of the Week
Busan, Korea
Busan, Korea – This illuminated waterfront skyline reminds us that balanced reflections—like a well-diversified portfolio—bring stability amid volatility.
All content is the opinion of Brian Decker
