Recent economic data continues to send mixed messages. Inflation trends have moderated but remain uneven, labor market indicators show signs of cooling beneath the surface, and market structure is shifting as leadership narrows and investor behavior evolves. This week’s commentary examines what the data is revealing—and not revealing—about economic momentum, Federal Reserve policy, and the broader environment investors are navigating.
US Economy
Our daily tracking suggests year-over-year inflation has been stable. Month-over-month inflation fluctuated—softening in October and rising in November, before ticking down this month.
Global travel growth is increasingly shifting toward lower-cost, less crowded destinations.
Firms grew significantly more optimistic about the future, with the six-month outlook surging to its highest level since January.
The Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Index ticked down, remaining near secularly low levels.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released nonfarm payroll data for both October and November. October payrolls fell by 105K (distorted by the government sector), while November payrolls rebounded only modestly by 64K. October unemployment rate was not published, while the November unemployment rate rose to a near 4-year high of 4.6%.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q3 GDP at 3.5%, down from 3.6% on December 11.
Nearly half of US adults planning New Year’s resolutions for 2026 aim to exercise more, making fitness the top priority, followed by saving more money and eating healthier.
Here are the most accurate AI models, …
and here are the models that hallucinate the most.
Here are the EV market shares of the top five EV sellers, as well as those of the Detroit Three.
Here are America’s favorite Christmas movies.
Source: @chartrdaily Read full article
US Stock Market
Nasdaq plans to file with the SEC to extend weekday stock trading to 23 hours, moving toward near round-the-clock (23/5) markets with a targeted launch in the second half of 2026.
Source: Reuters Read full article
The largest 7 stocks and the remaining 493 members each contributed 5 percentage points to this year’s EPS growth, with the latter group expected to contribute more next year.
In aggregate, mega-cap growth and tech stocks have a higher return on invested capital than the rest of the S&P 500.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
The Fed
Our daily tracking suggests year-over-year inflation has been stable. Month-over-month inflation fluctuated—softening in October and rising in November, before ticking down this month.
Kevin Warsh is now the perceived leading contender for the Fed chair position.
Great Quotes
“There are two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.” – John Adams
Picture of the Week
Torres del Paine National Park, Chile
All content is the opinion of Brian Decker
