After months of mixed signals, the data is finally aligning. Slowing economic momentum, widening gaps inside the stock market, and a Federal Reserve shifting back toward rate cuts are reshaping the landscape in real time. In this week’s analysis, we break down what these turning points mean, why leadership beneath the surface matters more than headlines, and how retirees can stay in control with clarity, confidence, and a plan that adapts as conditions change.

US Economy

North Dakota led US real GDP per capita growth since 2000, more than doubling output amid an energy boom, while Washington and California posted strong gains driven by tech.

Online dating is now the norm.

Source: Benedict Evans

 

Homebuying affordability remains a particularly acute challenge for renters, whose median income is roughly half of what’s needed to afford a median-priced home.

 

 

Even if we hold home prices flat at current levels, homebuying would not be affordable for nearly a decade, all else equal. Factoring in lower mortgage rates, homes are still unaffordable until 2033, according to Oxford Economics.

 

Source: Oxford Economics

 

The potential growth of the US is half of what it was in the 1970s, but has shown signs of improving, …

 

 

… as an uptick in productivity overcomes weak demographics.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q3 GDP at 4.0%, down from 4.2% on November 21.

 

US Stock Market

 

Despite weaker employment, US companies have maintained solid profit growth, and analysts project even higher profit margins.

 

 

Alphabet overtook Microsoft as the third-largest company by market cap.

 

 

35% of S&P 500 stocks are in a bear market.

 

 

The Fed

 

Market expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do at its next meeting in December have flipped back to favoring a rate cut over the past few days.

In addition to New York Fed President John Williams’ speech last week (suggesting that the Fed could lower rates again next month), Fed Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both said yesterday they were in favor of rate cuts.

Both Waller and Daly cited concerns about the labor market as the reason for potential future rate cuts, just like Williams.

And this morning, Fed Governor Stephen Miran – the White House’s biggest ally pushing for lower rates – went on television to give a very “dovish” view.

In an interview with Fox Business, Miran called for “large interest rate cuts,” highlighting the recent four-year high in the unemployment rate. From the interview…

We have to recognize that the unemployment rate has been drifting higher, and that is a function of monetary policy being too tight.

A jobs report today from payroll processor ADP showed that U.S. private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 8. That’s up from losing 2,500 jobs per week in the four-week period ending November 1.

Put simply, job losses are accelerating. The four-week moving average is the worst it has been in three months. And ADP doesn’t expect things to change anytime soon. From the report…

Consumer strength remains in question as we enter the holiday hiring season, which might be playing into delayed or curtailed job creation.

But that wasn’t the last of the economic data we saw today.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined again in November – hitting its lowest level since the post-Liberation Day tariff tantrum in April. And the expectations index, which measures folks’ short-term economic outlook, remained below the warning signal level of 80 for the 10th straight month.

Meanwhile, the component measuring sentiment around current financial conditions hit a 15-month low. And the share of consumers saying they believe the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth straight month.

On the labor market, only 27.6% of respondents said jobs were “plentiful” – down from 28.6% last month… and 14.6% expected more jobs to be available in the short term – down from 15.8% last month.

That’s bad news for the economy… especially entering the holiday season.

The last months of the year are typically the most important for retailers. With folks doing about 20% of all spending in November and December, lower consumer confidence during this period could make them pull back on shopping.

 

Great Quotes

 

“Too many people buy things they don’t need with money they don’t have to impress people they don’t know.” –  Rich Dad, Poor Dad.

 

Picture of the Week

 

The Matterhorn, Switzerland

 

 

 

All content is the opinion of Brian Decker