- The September jobs growth figure was almost double the expectations.
- Gains were broad, with hotels and restaurants, logistics, retail, healthcare, business services, and government (mostly educators) all registering payroll increases.
- Wage growth surprised to the downside.
- The unemployment rate held steady, and underemployment edged lower.
- The declines in temp services continued but at a slower pace.
- Labor force participation held steady.
- Here is a look at unemployment by duration.
- Banks (lenders continue to reduce staff)
- Construction (resilient)
- Risk assets sold off initially but then took solace in slowing wage growth. However, all bets are off with escalating violence in the Middle East.
- 10-Year Treasury yields managed to hit new 1-year highs at 4.8%, and the yield curve steepened further.
- The market still sees about a 50% chance of another Fed rate hike.
- Consumer credit tumbled in August, …
… as borrowers paid down some of their student debt.
- Credit card balances continued to climb, …
- despite record rates.
- Inflation-adjusted credit card loan balances:
Market Data
- The S&P 500 held support as US wage growth slowed.
- The S&P 500 concentration is at the highest level since the dot-com bubble.
Great Quotes
“Winter is an etching, spring a watercolor, summer an oil painting, and autumn a mosaic of them all.” – Stanley Horowitz
Picture of the Week
Baker Lake, Canada
All content is the opinion of Brian Decker
