• The September jobs growth figure was almost double the expectations.




  • Gains were broad, with hotels and restaurants, logistics, retail, healthcare, business services, and government (mostly educators) all registering payroll increases.
  • Wage growth surprised to the downside.




  • The unemployment rate held steady, and underemployment edged lower.
  • The declines in temp services continued but at a slower pace.
  • Labor force participation held steady.
  • Here is a look at unemployment by duration.




  • Banks (lenders continue to reduce staff)
  • Construction (resilient)
  • Risk assets sold off initially but then took solace in slowing wage growth. However, all bets are off with escalating violence in the Middle East.
  • 10-Year Treasury yields managed to hit new 1-year highs at 4.8%, and the yield curve steepened further.
  • The market still sees about a 50% chance of another Fed rate hike.
  • Consumer credit tumbled in August, …




… as borrowers paid down some of their student debt.




  • Credit card balances continued to climb, …




  • despite record rates.




  • Inflation-adjusted credit card loan balances:




Market Data


  • The S&P 500 held support as US wage growth slowed.




  • The S&P 500 concentration is at the highest level since the dot-com bubble.



Great Quotes


“Winter is an etching, spring a watercolor, summer an oil painting, and autumn a mosaic of them all.” – Stanley Horowitz


Picture of the Week


Baker Lake, Canada



All content is the opinion of Brian Decker