- Economists continue to boost their projections for the current quarter’s GDP growth. Forecasts for the full year also continue to rise, driven by expectations of resilient consumer spending.
- Consensus projections show slower growth over the next couple of quarters, with momentum picking up in Q4.
- New home sales modestly exceeded last year’s figures but fell short of projections.
- Here is the seasonally adjusted chart with regional contributions.
Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
- – Inventories were roughly in line with 2022 levels.
- – The median new home price was below last year’s level.
- Capital Economics expects new home sales to grow over the next couple of years.
- In January, home prices registered robust year-over-year increases across all price tiers, with the most substantial gains observed in the lower-priced segment (due to tight inventories).
- The median mortgage payment for new homebuyers has decreased from the record highs of last year but still remains elevated.
- Could we see a rebound in housing inflation?
Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo
- The share of cities with positive rent growth is rising.
- The influx of new apartment units has predominantly affected the higher-end/luxury rental market. Meanwhile, rents for mid-tier apartments continue to rise in a number of cities.
- The Dallas Fed’s regional manufacturing index showed some improvement this month but remained in contraction territory.
- However, the underlying trends point to a rebound in the Texas area factory activity.
- New orders:
- The easing of US financial conditions equates to approximately 100 basis points of rate cuts, providing the US central bank with additional justification to delay rate reductions.
Source: BNP Paribas; @WallStJesus
- Market signals on the probability of a recession have been mixed.
Source: Goldman Sachs; @WallStJesus
Market Data
- The S&P 500 experienced 253 trading sessions without a 2% daily drop.
- Bloomberg’s broad commodity index has been trending down.
- The recent jump in US natural gas prices proved to be fleeting, with forecasts calling for unusually warm weather in the eastern United States in the coming days.
- This chart shows the share of US electricity generation by resource type.
- The S&P 500 has advanced for 15 of the last 17 weeks – the longest winning streak since 1989.
- Rising market concentration remains a concern
- Tech outperformance is hitting extreme levels.
Source: @johnauthers, @opinion Read full article
- The top-10 stock valuations look frothy.
- How does a stock split impact the share price?
Source: BofA Global Research
- How does being added to or removed from the S&P 500 affect a stock’s price?
Source: BofA Global Research
- Boeing can’t catch a break. With China venturing into commercial aircraft production, the US manufacturer may face further challenges ahead.
Source: @business Read full article
Great Quotes
“Let no one ever come to you without leaving happier”. -Mother Teresa
Picture of the Week
Grand Canyon National Park, AZ
All content is the opinion of Brian Decker
