• US business activity strengthened this month, according to the PMI report from S&P Global.
  • Factories have increased their hiring.
  • The Conference Board’s leading index declined again in May.

 

 

  •  This indicator has not seen an increase in 27 months, a new record.

 

 

  • For the first time, the average economist’s forecast (compiled by Bloomberg) shows less than two full Fed rate cuts by the end of the year.
  • Goldman’s Q2 GDP growth tracker dipped below 2% (annualized).
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator edged lower this month.

 

 

 

  • The final GDP revision showed further downward adjustments to Q1 consumer spending growth.

 

 

  • Vehicle orders have increased for seven months in a row.
  • Capital Economics expects a slowdown in real GDP during the second half of this year.
  • Initial jobless claims eased last week, but continuing claims keep moving higher.

 

  • Real retail inventories are rising quickly.
  • The Citi Economic Surprise Index declined further as economic reports continue to disappoint.

 

 

  • Treasury yields moved lower in response.

 

Market Data

 

  • The rally in S&P 500 tech stocks appears extended.

 

 

  • Here is the Nasdaq Composite advance-decline line.

 

 

  • US stocks are entering a small window of seasonal strength before a summertime peak.

 

 

  • By some measures, Bitcoin’s latest rally may have marked a cyclical peak.

 

Source: Stifel

 

  • US households are increasingly bullish on stocks, despite their growing pessimism about future business conditions (see the US section).

 

 

 

  • The US market looks expensive on a price-to-book basis relative to the rest of the world.

 

Source: @TaviCosta

 

  • Transportation stocks continue to lag.

 

 

  • Shares of US regional banks are still struggling.

 

 

  • Addressing excess office capacity:

 

 

  • This chart displays the breakdown of US equity ownership.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs; @MikeZaccardi

 

  • Labor force participation among Americans aged 65 and older:

 

 

Great Quotes

 

“If you are not willing to learn, no one can help you.  If you are determined to learn, no one can stop you.” – Mark Twain

 

Picture of the Week

 

Valley of Fire State Park, NV

 

 

 

All content is the opinion of Brian Decker