The headlines pointed to strength. The underlying data tells a more nuanced story. Here’s a closer look at what we’re seeing in the numbers.

 

US Economy

 

Nominal retail sales jumped by 1.7% month over month, topping expectations. The key “control group”—a direct input for GDP—also posted a solid gain of 0.7%. The headline strength was driven by a surge in gasoline sales, as well as other temporary factors, including unusually warm weather and tailwind from a blockbuster tax refund season.

More timely data for April indicates that consumer spending is already slowing sharply, suggesting consumer strain ahead.

 

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

The surge in gasoline prices is likely to create a roughly $140 billion annualized drag on household incomes, which is expected to weigh disproportionately on lower-income consumers and dampen discretionary spending.

 

 

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q1 GDP at 1.2%

 

 

Here’s a look at savings rates around the world.

 

 

Over the past two years, Google has gone from having 0% of its code written by AI to 75%.

The US is abundantly endowed with a range of natural resources.

 

 

This map shows the fertility rates by country relative to the replacement level.

 

 

US Stock Market

 

Consensus earnings growth for the tech sector continues to rise

 

Source: a16z   Read full article

 

and is running at more than double that of the market.

 

 

However, the breadth of earnings revisions is narrow, with eight out of 11 sectors having seen negative revisions to 2026 EPS estimates since the Iran conflict started.

 

 

Twenty-nine percent of the wealth creation from US stocks in the past 100 years came from just 10 stocks.

 

Source: @charliebilello   Read full article

 

Jobs Report

Initial jobless claims edged up but remained near a two-year low, signaling limited layoffs. The WARN layoff filings remained low, suggesting limited layoffs in the immediate pipeline.

 

Great Quotes

 

“Success is the product of daily habits — not once-in-a-lifetime transformations.” — James Clear, ‘Atomic Habits’

 

Picture of the Week

 

Scenic View of Terraced Rice Fields in Asia

 

 

All content is the opinion of Brian Decker