Gas is above $4 a gallon. Rents are falling. Jobs bounced back — but the trend is softer than the headlines suggest. Consumer sentiment is down, yet Americans are still spending. This week’s economic roundup cuts through the noise and tells you what’s actually happening in the economy right now, and what it means for your retirement income plan.
US Economy
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised lower for March, missing expectations. This was driven by downward revisions in both the current conditions
and expectations components. Despite the downbeat sentiment, actual consumer spending remains solid, based on debit and credit card transactions.
Residential renovations now account for one in every four dollars spent on private construction. The national median rent, on a seasonally adjusted basis, fell for the 11th consecutive month to the lowest level since early 2022.
AI-written output exceeded human-written output in 2025.
Source: @wintonARK Read full article
Here are the benefits of eating fruit.
Source: @healthhubHQ_ Read full article
About 40% of US teens report being online almost constantly.
Much of the Commercial Real Estate sector is challenged. The office vacancy rate is at a record high. The Apartment List vacancy rate has also been trending higher and is now above pre-pandemic levels.
The US national average price for regular gasoline jumped further above $4 per gallon. The 30-day percentage increase is higher than after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price appreciation cooled. The year-over-year increase in the FHFA House Price Index also decelerated, reaching its slowest rate in 14 years.
The Redbook index of same-store sales growth accelerated.
Here is a look at the top marginal income tax rates in the US by state.
NASA’s Artemis II mission launched yesterday (April 1). This visualization illustrates the historic journey planned around the moon.
Source: Bloomberg Read full article
Jobs Report
Unexpectedly strong March employment data might be another blip that fades next month. Or it might signal economic growth is stronger than many investors think.
Key Points:
- March payrolls jumped 178,000 after falling 133,000 in February. The two prior months were revised downward by a combined 7,000.
- A surprise increase in manufacturing employment helped but healthcare/social assistance again accounted for most of the job growth.
- Smoothing out the monthly noise, 3-month average job growth is 68,000, 6-month average is 15,000 and the 12-month average is 22,000.
- Weekly claims data shows the pace of firings remains muted. The 4-week average of new unemployment benefit claims was 208,000.
- ADP data shows very small firms (1-19 employees) drove almost all the March job growth.
- With respect to pay, “job stayers” saw 4.5% average wage growth while “job changer” wages rose 6.3%.
Bottom Line: Jobs data is noisy so it’s important not to get too excited or dismayed by good or bad months. Looking at the 3-month vs. 12-month averages suggests the picture may be improving, but much depends on how the war unfolds.
US Stock Market
The forward P/E of Exxon Mobil has surpassed that of Nvidia.
Global equities lost $12 trillion in March, marking the largest monthly dollar decline on record.
OpenAI now commands a $852 billion valuation. This chart puts that in context.
Source: Sherwood Read full article
Demand for OpenAI shares has weakened sharply on the secondary market, with sellers struggling to find buyers, while investors increasingly favor Anthropic—viewed as offering a more attractive risk-reward profile and stronger growth potential at half the valuation.
The Fed
Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations were revised sharply higher from 3.4% to 3.8%, while longer-term expectations were unrevised.
Great Quotes
“Almost everything will work again if you unplug it for a few minutes, including you.” —Anne Lamott
Picture of the Week
St. Stephen’s Basilica, Budapest, Hungary
All content is the opinion of Brian Decker
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