A leadership shake-up at the BLS has reignited the fight over how America counts jobs. We outline a practical, transparent blueprint (yes—using real-time data and AI) and what better numbers could mean for Fed policy as Jackson Hole, retail earnings, and the FOMC minutes loom. See what might change—and why it matters for markets.
President Trump replaced the Bureau of Labor Statistics department head two weeks ago. We should all want accurate data above all else. Then we can have productive debates about what to do next. We also have to accept that our data is never perfect; the economy is just too big and complex to summarize in a few charts.
Our data methodology has room for improvement. We can always do better. Unfortunately, the economy doesn’t stop while we rethink everything. Revising those methods is kind of like changing the oil while your car is moving. If you do it, you’d best do it carefully.
That being said, I am part of a chat group that has been vigorously debating how we should actually develop the BLS employment data. I have generally been on the side that the BLS is doing the best they can and the flaw is in the surveys. Another group said we should use AI and known data. Color me skeptical.
Then one person simply went to Chat GPT 5.0 and asked some very specific questions about what we can do to improve the BLS unemployment data. To my amazement, Chat GPT came back with a rather lengthy explanation of how we can use current databases of actual employment, government databases, etc. and an actual plan to create a new employment analysis system over the next five years. Very public and transparent. I, for one, hope they go that route.
Wall Street’s focus this week will be on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium to be held from August 21 to 23. Market participants will also gear up for a deluge of quarterly results from retail companies. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine developments will continue to grab eyeballs, with the latter nation’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday.
The Jackson Hole gathering will see some of the world’s most well-known central bankers, economists, and financial experts convene in Kansas City. The theme this year is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” With the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment coming under pressure after concerning jobs and inflation data this month, market participants will be watching the symposium keenly for any clues on the central bank’s future actions.
Turning to the earnings calendar, retail giants Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) will headline the week, along with smaller rivals Target (TGT) and Lowe’s (LOW).
In terms of economic data, investors will be receiving the minutes of the Fed’s July monetary policy committee meeting on Wednesday, followed by S&P flash PMIs on Thursday.
Great Quotes
“Happiness depends upon ourselves.” – Aristotle
Picture of the Week
A precise landing takes timing and control—just like managing risk when market conditions shift.
All content is the opinion of Brian Decker
