• Economists continue to boost their projections for the current quarter’s GDP growth. Forecasts for the full year also continue to rise, driven by expectations of resilient consumer spending.

 

 

  • Consensus projections show slower growth over the next couple of quarters, with momentum picking up in Q4.

 

 

  • New home sales modestly exceeded last year’s figures but fell short of projections.

 

 

  • Here is the seasonally adjusted chart with regional contributions.

 

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

  • – Inventories were roughly in line with 2022 levels.

 

 

  • – The median new home price was below last year’s level.

 

 

  • Capital Economics expects new home sales to grow over the next couple of years.

 

 

  • In January, home prices registered robust year-over-year increases across all price tiers, with the most substantial gains observed in the lower-priced segment (due to tight inventories).

 

 

  • The median mortgage payment for new homebuyers has decreased from the record highs of last year but still remains elevated.

 

 

  • Could we see a rebound in housing inflation?

 

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 

  • The share of cities with positive rent growth is rising.

 

 

  • The influx of new apartment units has predominantly affected the higher-end/luxury rental market. Meanwhile, rents for mid-tier apartments continue to rise in a number of cities.

 

 

  • The Dallas Fed’s regional manufacturing index showed some improvement this month but remained in contraction territory.

 

 

  • However, the underlying trends point to a rebound in the Texas area factory activity.
  • New orders:

 

 

  • The easing of US financial conditions equates to approximately 100 basis points of rate cuts, providing the US central bank with additional justification to delay rate reductions.

 

Source: BNP Paribas; @WallStJesus

 

  • Market signals on the probability of a recession have been mixed.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs; @WallStJesus

 

Market Data

 

  • The S&P 500 experienced 253 trading sessions without a 2% daily drop.

 

 

  • Bloomberg’s broad commodity index has been trending down.

 

 

  • The recent jump in US natural gas prices proved to be fleeting, with forecasts calling for unusually warm weather in the eastern United States in the coming days.

 

 

  • This chart shows the share of US electricity generation by resource type.

 

 

  • The S&P 500 has advanced for 15 of the last 17 weeks – the longest winning streak since 1989.

 

 

  • Rising market concentration remains a concern

 

 

  • Tech outperformance is hitting extreme levels.

 

Source: @johnauthers, @opinion   Read full article

 

  • The top-10 stock valuations look frothy.

 

 

  • How does a stock split impact the share price?

 

Source: BofA Global Research

 

  • How does being added to or removed from the S&P 500 affect a stock’s price?

 

Source: BofA Global Research

 

  • Boeing can’t catch a break. With China venturing into commercial aircraft production, the US manufacturer may face further challenges ahead.

 

 

Source: @business   Read full article

 

Great Quotes

 

“Let no one ever come to you without leaving happier”. -Mother Teresa

 

Picture of the Week

 

Grand Canyon National Park, AZ

 

 

 

All content is the opinion of Brian Decker