The latest data shows an economy still moving forward, but with notable crosscurrents. The most recent jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls coming in above consensus at 115,000, while the broader U6 underemployment rate jumped 20 basis points to 8.2% and the job-finding rate fell to nearly its lowest level in over a decade. Headline CPI has accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, with ground beef breaking $7 per pound for the first time and tomato prices surging. On the markets side, Q1 corporate earnings have come in 9.2% ahead of expectations and posted the strongest year-over-year growth since 2004 outside of post-recession recovery periods, while the Nasdaq 100’s recent run now ranks among the largest melt-ups in market history. And on Capitol Hill, the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Below is a roundup of the most recent data across the U.S. economy, equity markets, and the Fed.
US Economy
Nonfarm payrolls rose by a well-above-consensus 115K in April, with private payrolls rising by a solid 123K. Healthcare and social assistance jobs have risen since 2023, while other private-sector jobs have fallen. The headline unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. On an unrounded basis, however, the unemployment rate rose by 8 bps to 4.34%, as household employment fell, partially offset by a decline in the civilian labor force participation rate.
The underemployment rate (U6) jumped 20 bps to 8.2%.
Despite broad concerns over high prices, both one- and five-year inflation expectations declined.
How has government debt load evolved across major economies?
The US Weekly Economic Index moderated, but remained solid and well above potential growth.
Existing home sales remained subdued, as elevated mortgage rates and weak consumer confidence continued to weigh on demand. The inventory of available homes also ticked higher, though the year-over-year growth has slowed considerably.
The job-finding rate, which reflects the share of unemployed people from one month who find employment in the next, fell to nearly its lowest level in over a decade.
Container volume at the Port of Los Angeles has climbed to a multiyear high for this time of year.
The top 20% of households by income still carry positive excess savings, while the bottom 80% have depleted their pandemic windfalls.
Bank of America’s credit and debit card data show spending per household rose 4.8% year over year in April, the strongest growth in three years. Spending excluding gasoline also accelerated to a three-year high, signaling resilient consumer demand. Services spending accounted for the majority of growth over the past two years.
US Stock Market
Tech now represents 55% of all business investment in the US. Q1 earnings have surged 27% so far, the strongest year-over-year growth since 2004 (excluding recovery periods from major shocks).
The percentages of S&P 500 companies with positive year-over-year growth in forward revenues per share and forward EPS continue to increase. The Q1 EPS estimate has been revised sharply higher since the earnings season began. This chart shows the unusual scale of the revision.
Source: @kevinmuir via @darioperkins
Earnings have come in 9.2% ahead of expectations so far, the strongest since late 2021 and well above the pre-pandemic average.
Global earnings growth accelerated sharply, decoupling from real GDP trends. Earnings growth was strong everywhere except Europe.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
The melt-up in the Nasdaq 100 has surpassed prior melt-ups, except for its own during the dot-com bubble.
Source: @RitholtzWealth
Here’s a look at education funding versus outcomes by state.
Source: Visual Capitalist Read full article
Which states have banned phones in schools?
The Fed
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.
Source: CNBC Read full article
Both headline and core inflation accelerated further on a year-over-year basis in April. Core inflation jumped month over month, topping expectations.
Source: @economics Read full article
Here are the prices for ground beef, which broke $7 per pound for the first time.
Prices of tomatoes also surged.
h/t @M_McDonough
Core goods inflation was muted, with the pass-through effects of tariffs likely winding down. Software, which has a low weighting in CPI but a much larger weighting in core PCE, accelerated further.
Also saw continued firmness in airline fares. Prices for video and audio services also rebounded sharply, following Netflix’s decision in late March to raise subscription prices.
Household debt to GDP fell further in Q1, according to the New York Fed. Transitions into serious delinquency improved markedly for student loans, remained mostly unchanged for auto loans and credit cards, and accelerated slightly for mortgages
According to ADP, private employers added an average of 33,000 jobs per week during the four weeks ending April 25.
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